The deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards in past six hours with a speed about 12 kmph. It lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20^th September, 2018 over west central Bay of Bengal near latitude 17.6⁰N and longitude 86.8⁰E, about 290 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam (Coastal Andhra Pradesh) and about 270 km southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha).

 It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and cross south Odisha ­ north Andhra Pradesh coasts between Kalingapatnam & Puri (Odisha), close to Gopalpur around mid-night of today, the 20^th September as a cyclonic storm with wind speed of 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)

Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface 

wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

20.09.18/1130

17.6/86.8

55-65 gusting to 75

20.09.18/1730

18.5/85.5

60-70 gusting to 80

20.09.18/2330

19.2/84.2

60-70 gusting to 80

21.09.18/0530

19.8/82.9

55-65 gusting to 75

21.09.18/1130

20.5/81.4

45-55 gusting to 65

21.09.18/2330

21.8/78.9

40-50 gusting to 60

22.09.18/1130

23.1/76.5

30-40 gusting to 50

Warning

1. Rainfall:

Meteorological Subdivision

Forecast for Day-1 upto 0830 hours IST of 21 Sept

Forecast for Day-2 upto 0830 hours IST of 22 Sept

Forecast for Day-3 upto 0830 hours IST of 23 Sept

Odisha

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Odisha with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over south Odisha

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Odisha

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at a few places

Coastal Andhra Pradesh

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over north Coastal Andhra Pradesh

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at many places

Rainfall at many places

Telangana

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls with extremely heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at a few places

Gangetic west Bengal

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at a few places

Jharkhand

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at a few places

Chhattisgarh

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at a few places

Vidarbha

Rainfall at many places

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rayalaseema

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at many places

Rainfall at a few places

East Madhya Pradesh

Rainfall at a few places

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at many places

West Madhya Pradesh

Rainfall at isolated places

Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

East Rajasthan

Rainfall at isolated places

Rainfall at a few places with heavy falls at isolated places

Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

2. Wind Warning:

• Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is very likely along & off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh Coasts during next 03 hours. It will gradually increase becoming 60-70 kmph gusting 80 kmph from today evening for subsequent 12 hours.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely along & off West Bengal during next 24 hours.
• Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is very likely over central & adjoining north Bay of Bengal around the deep depression centre. It will gradually increase becoming 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over northwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal from today, the 20^thSeptember evening for subsequent 12 hours

3. Sea Condition:

State of sea will be very rough over central and North Bay of Bengal and along & off Odisha, West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh Coasts during next 06 hours and become high along & off north Andhra Pradesh & south Odisha Coasts from today, the 20th September evening for subsequent 12 hours.

4. Storm Surge Warning:

Storm surge of about 0.5 meter above astronomical tides likely to inundate low lying areas of districts of Vizianagaram & Srikakulam of Andhra Pradesh; Gajapati, Ganjam, Khurda and Puri districts of Odisha at the time of landfall.

5. Damage Expected over districts of Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam of Andhra Pradesh, Gajapati, Ganjam, Khurda, Nayagarh and Puri districts of Odisha :

Damage to thatched huts; Minor damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of branches and Major damage to Kutcha and minor damage to Pucca roads. Some damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.

6. Action Suggested:

Total suspension of fishing operations, Fishermen are advised not to venture into northwest Bay of Bengal and along & off Odisha, West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh Coasts during next 24 hours.