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Cyclone warning for Andaman Islands “ORANGE MESSAGE”
The cyclonic storm ‘PABUK’ over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood moved further west-northwestwards with a speed of 13 kmph in past 06 hours. It lay centered at 1430 hours IST of today, the 05th January, 2019 over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood near latitude 9.5°N and longitude 97.3°E, about 550 km east-southeast of Port Blair. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards for some more time. Thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Andaman Islands around evening of 06th January as a Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph. Thereafter, it is very likely to move north-northwestwards and then recurve northeastwards towards Myanmar coast and weaken gradually during 07th-08th January, 2019.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
| Date/Time(IST) | Position(Lat.°N/ long.°E) | Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph) | Category of cyclonic disturbance |
| 05.01.19/1430 | 9.5/97.3 | 70-80 gusting to 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 05.01.19/1730 | 9.7/96.7 | 70-80 gusting to 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 05.01.19/2330 | 10.1/95.8 | 75-85 gusting to 95 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 06.01.19/0530 | 10.5/94.8 | 75-85 gusting to 95 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 06.01.19/1130 | 11.0/93.8 | 70-80 gusting to 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 06.01.19/2330 | 11.9/92.3 | 70-80 gusting to 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 07.01.19/1130 | 12.7/91.1 | 65-75 gusting to 85 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 07.01.19/2330 | 13.6/90.3 | 55-65 gusting to 75 | Deep Depression |
| 08.01.19/1130 | 15.1/90.7 | 45-55 gusting to 65 | Depression |
| 08.01.19/2330 | 17.0/91.7 | 30-40 gusting to 50 | Well Marked Low |
Warnings:
- Heavy rainfall warning
Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Andaman Islands on today, the 5thJanuary. Its intensity is very likely to increase with rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 6th and at isolated places on 7th over Andaman Islands.
- Wind warning
- Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is likely to prevail over Andaman Islands, Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of eastcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal till 7th morning. It is very likely to gradually decrease thereafter becoming 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea & eastcentral Bay of Bengal by 8th morning and 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal by 8th evening.
- Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to over Nicobar Islands till 6th.
- Sea condition
- The sea condition will be high over Andaman Islands, Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of eastcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal from the evening of 5th till the morning of 7th. Thereafter, it will become very rough over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea and eastcentral Bay of Bengal by 8th morning and rough over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal by 8th evening.
- The sea condition will be very rough over Nicobar Islands till 6th.
- Storm Surge Warning
Storm surge of height of about 0.5 m above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the low lying areas of Andaman Islands at the time of landfall.
- Damage Expected over Andaman Islands:
Damage to thatched huts, minor damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of branches. Major damage to Kutcha and damage to Pucca roads. Uprooting of small trees and some damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.
- Action suggested
- People in Andaman Islands are advised to remain in safe places.
- Total suspension of fishing operation over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast and eastcentral Bay of Bengal till 7th January and over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on 8th.
- Fishermen are advised not to venture into Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast and eastcentral Bay of Bengal during the same period.
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