WWW III: Has the ball started rolling?
It is extremely difficult to foresee tomorrow, predicting the day after is only for Nostradamus.
However, sometimes it feels the days are near.
Though the COVID has done its part to accentuate economic disparity to the extreme, we cannot deny, it was building up for quite along. COVID will just burst the balloon.
Will there be Civil Wars? There is a distinct possibility. (Kazakhstan being the starter on the plater of the conflict)
Will there be wars?
We do see ample opportunities- India/China (Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh), India/Pakistan (POK and Baluchistan), Russia/EU (Ukraine).
Will there be WWW III?
It is here where we need Nostradamus.
However, in his absence let me give it a try.
Wars happen when the law fails.
World War happens when laws of global institutions fail.
We can clearly see that happening across established institutions.
Hence a new order is on the anvil for sure.
So who can be the 2 sides of WWW III?
It’s a no-brainer- USA vs China. Either side of pacific is flexing arm under the court
Will China triumph and bring in the new world order?
Let us reflect on the outcome of WWW II.
The USA was actually not a party to the war until it was attacked. In fact, the major theatre (Europe) did not even bear its crudest might.
But what the USA did was to help Europeans understand how catastrophic it can be to pull them in, by nuking Japan.
Post WWW II, the ex superpower UK, France, and the aspiring superpowers Japan and Germany all fell in line with the USA.
But interestingly in the next 3 decades, Germany and Japan became the 2nd and 3rd largest economies with US help, but the so-called Allied partner was pushed down the ladder.
The strategy was simple. The USA made friends with their enemies and demolished the prevailing World Order by relegating.
This is how the new world order was established.
Who was still challenging its supremacy?
So they formulated a strategy to exhaust its resources which led to its collapse.
USSR kept on investing enormous resources in developing loss-making ventures within the republic and seeking alignment with third world nations.
To drain the Soviets to exhaustion with paltry budgets, they funded the Mujahid in Afghanistan as well, increasing defense budget for the Soviets.
So history says, the USA knows its a job well.
Let us now fast forward to the present.
Under Putin, Russia is re-emerging as a credible military power and is flexing its muscle in the Arab world. The Syrian crisis and the USA’s inability to get rid of Bashar and the complete annihilation of ISIS by Russian troops rang alarm bells.
The closer proximity of China with Russia is definitely not a very comforting development.
The USA is deeply anguished and considers China as a traitor because China did whatever the USA needed to make the USSR collapse. China always aligned with the USA during the cold war and got MFN status, which made China whatever it is today.
So the USA feels ditched and is out to give lessons.
So it is back to the old game- financially drains the competitors.
Before I move forward, I would like to reiterate why Russia could never become the number 1 economy?
One classic case of Middle-class trap.
One simply cannot become a Super Power by being middle class.
So, is China heading the same way?
China is the originator of COVID but the USA funded the laboratory.
Covid has hit donor China’s beneficiaries the hardest. Many such nations are facing bankruptcy and spiraling inflation. Civil wars are very much a possibility.
China may have to take a steep haircut on its funding. Evergrande’s collapse is not making things easier.
The declining population and inversion of the third-world economy is putting a heavy strain on the Chinese economy.
Increasing emphasis by Japan, Australia, and India on the military is diverting critical resources of the Chinese treasury.
America has withdrawn from Afghanistan along with enormous funding.
From whom are the Taliban asking for it? Maybe China.
Moreover, how can the USA utilize that corpus? Maybe a little on Mujahid will give windfall returns to drain China even more.
The type of violent civil disorder in Kazakhstan could not have been possible without highly trained, organized militants with generous funding. It was so grave that Russia had to send in troops to bring in normalcy.
Will then Kazakhstan an Afghanistan of 1980s in making?
They armed Taiwan and Ukraine to the teeth. One to bleed China and the other for Russia. Militants in Afghanistan and Kazakhstan, for now, are the cherry on the cake.
So when will WWW III start?
When China will realize it’s bankrupt. It may be sooner than later. Nostradamus is there to share the date.
What about India?
An outcast, whom no side will like to see in the war on the other side of the table.
This may be the only reason why India will become a Super Power as envisioned by Swamiji, the legendary Monk, who wins over the heart of the West and East without a single blade of anger and hate in hand. The Original Viswa Guru will reclaim her rightful place in the world as a superpower. Well for that you need a determined nation and people with a national purpose over their personal to lead from the front.
Author: Udit Bhaskar Roy, a busy management guru with over 3 decades of business development expertise in MNCs. His lab skills during the Physics classes at Motijheel College always get reflected in his critical quantum analysis of the situation. Apart from a die-hard fan for music and classical literature, He loves to click some wonderful moments through the digital eye & lenses. Iron hand administrator, yet affectionate enough to be admired by all.