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PHDCCI Economy GPS Index indicates Economy activity remains resilient : PHD Chamber
New Delhi, April 10, 2023: The economic activity remains resilient in March 2023 supported by the domestic consumption, supportive policy environment and diminishing global uncertainties. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for March 2023 took a high jump at 148.8 from 133.6 in March 2022 showing 15.2 points improvement on the Y-O-Y basis, said Mr. Saket Dalmia.
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index captures the momentum in supply side business activity through growth in GST collections, demand side consumer behaviour through volume growth in passenger vehicle sales and sensitivity of policy reforms and impact of domestic and international economic and business environment through the movement of SENSEX at the base year of 2018-19=100, said the Industry Body.
Demand trajectory in the economy remains intact as passenger vehicles, with compact cars and utility vehicles, grew around 25% Y-o-Y at 3,36,000 in March 2023 from 268624 in March 2022. Supply side indicator, the gross GST revenue collections grew 20% Y-o-Y at Rs 1.60,122 crore in March 2023 as compared with Rs. 1,42,095 crore in M2022. However, the sequential growth of SENSEX (average of daily close) has shown a decrease by (-)2.2% percent in March 2023 as compared to its corresponding value in January 2023, said Mr. Saket Dalmia
Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index2018-19=100 March 2019 March 2020 March 2021 March 2022 March 2023 105.6 80.0 123.0 133.6 148.8
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of commerce and Industry
Economic recovery so far (Sequential)
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index2018-19=100 March 2022 April 2022 May2022 June 2022 July 2022 Aug 2022 Sep2022 Oct2022 Nov2022 Dec 2022 Jan2023 Feb 2023 March 2023 133.6 140.6 128.0 131.3 136.1 141.0 145.0 145.7 140.7 140.7 146.9 144.3 148.8
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of commerce and Industry
PHDCCI Economy GPS Index has been consistently remained above 140 levels since August 2022 which shows a positive momentum for the economic activity. The pace of economic activity showed momentum on the back of strong demand side, supply side and investments supported by the various structural reforms undertaken by the Government during the last 3 years. Despite global headwinds, we are hopeful that economic growth will surpass 7% in the current financial year supported by the resilient demand conditions and improving supply conditions. Going ahead, continued hand holding by the Government is required to mitigate the impact of recent geo-political developments while maintaining a balance between inflation and economic growth, said Mr Saket Dalmia.
Chart 1: GPS Index: Monthly Trend Chart 2: Movement of GDP and GPS over the quarters
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) Economy GPS Index is a composite index of 3 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which measures the broad economic and business activity. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index, based on the monthly values of three high frequency indicators viz., GST collection (Rs. Crore), Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) and SENSEX (daily average), helps to find the direction of the economy. The three broad indicators represent not only demand and supply in the economy but also revenue growth of the government and movement of financial markets in the country. GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is a broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and movement of SENSEX indicates the mood of both domestic and foreign investors.
Table : Movement of Economy GPS over the months
Month/ Year Economy GPS Index FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 April 102.1 104 39.6 123.7 140.6 May 100.1 98.1 50.1 91.5 128.0 June 97.7 97.3 75.1 107.5 131.3 July 72.3 100.9 94.3 85.6 119.7 136.1 August 96.8 101.2 91.0 90.5 116.7 141.0 September 98.2 101.4 92.4 100.2 113.1 145.0 October 94.9 99.8 102.0 109.6 127.0 145.7 November 92.0 97.4 103.9 106.9 125.2 140.7 December 88.0 93.7 101.0 111.9 127.5 140.7 January 96.7 101.4 107.1 118.5 135.1 146.9 February 93.6 98.8 103.2 118.8 129.8 144.3 March 97.8 105.6 80.0 123.0 133.6 148.8
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of commerce and Industry
