0
0
How do India and Bangladesh share a deep history and strong ties?
Why do political changes in Bangladesh threaten regional stability?
What challenges do security and economy face from new developments in Dhaka?
How does rising extremism in Bangladesh impact minorities and neighbors?
What steps should India take to support democracy and peace in Bangladesh?
- Prof. Jasim Mohammad
India and Bangladesh share a deep-rooted history, interwoven with cultural ties, economic partnerships, and geopolitical interests. This is unquestionable, as the bond was nurtured into being from the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971, over which it had grown beyond itself to encompass an area of diversified economic interests, infrastructural collaborations, and common security concerns. Nonetheless, the coup in Dhaka is now accompanied with other Islamist forces overpowering the other political fronts, so it isn’t just something that requires India having high-level responses.
For decades, Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, has been recognized as a role model for socio-economic progress in South Asia. The nation’s remarkable transformation, particularly in poverty eradication, women’s empowerment, and economic diversification, has been widely acknowledged and applauded on the global stage. India was a key development partner in this process by providing financial support, more connectivity and an increase in trade tie links, all of which have culminated in regional stability. However, now all these things are likely to corrupt with the changes in politics in Dhaka.
The coup which replaced the government of Sheikh Hasina with one controlled by Islamist community has not only sent shockwaves across India but the whole international community. Now really consorted in the new political set-up are two organizations-the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Hafazat-e-Islami. This means that Bangladesh will gradually remove the secular and democratic essence on which it was founded. But above all, this is the saddest development for India, having bearing directly on the Indian northeastern border security and on the regional stability at larger level. Always, the northeastern states of India are highly prone to cross-border insurgency or refugee influx. A failing Bangladesh could aggravate these vulnerabilities by providing a safe haven for the anti-India elements. Militant groups and extremist ideologies, like those known to Dhaka after these new developments, would take advantage of the porous borders and jeopardize the security of the region as well as India’s internal environment. This scenario really needs more proactiveness by New Delhi in addressing border improvements and counterinsurgency.
This scenario goes beyond security into enormous economic implications in India. The Act East Policy, which quite literally lay on robust connectivity into Southeast Asia through Bangladesh, has been jeopardized. Major infrastructural projects, including railway lines, ports, and power plants, have been an important aspect of India-Bangladesh economic relations. Any disruption in these initiatives would put India’s dreams of regional economic integration on hold.
Another area of concern is Bangladesh’s growing tilt toward Pakistan and China. The re-start of Pakistan’s cargo operations at Chittagong port after fifty years and the withdrawal of security clearances for Pakistani citizens are deliberate moves in foreign policy. Another level of complication in this regard is China’s increasingly deeper involvement in Bangladesh. It indicates that Beijing wastes no time intending to make its own strategic gains by courting the Islamist factions during the political chaos. The anti-India elements in Bangladesh become the receiving end of China’s courting as the former encircles India geopolitically and works towards undermining New Delhi’s influence across South Asia. This holds with the greater Chinese maneuver-make its way in as wide a part of the region as possible through infrastructure projects and economic partnerships.
There is a pertinent issue with the minorities of Bangladesh. Under this current regime, the Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, and some marginalized Muslim groups (like Shias and Ahmediyyas) face threats in increasing levels. The attack on temples, religious heads, and community people underline a deteriorating situation, which has been increasingly silence by the majority of the religion – a heavy attack on the credibility of worldview diversity. For India, which shares deep cultural and religious ties with these communities, this becomes a problem both humanitarian and diplomatic.
For India, being a neighbor and possibly ally, a balanced approach is what the situation calls for. It must uphold Bangladesh’s sovereignty, though this does not mean being a passive bystander to the erosion of secularism and democracy in its backyard. Diplomatic engagement is necessary; so is pushing for agreement in multilateral forums such as SAARC and BIMSTEC to generate the need for international consensus on the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh.
The current administration in Dhaka, led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, lacks credibility. While his part as a reformer still holds symbolic legitimacy, the real power appears to be with the Islamist factions. The lack of a clear roadmap toward democratic elections and the suppression of dissent point toward authoritarianism. This should raise very serious questions about Bangladesh and its pledges toward democratic norms and perhaps even its future prospects.
The rise of Islamist ideologies in Bangladesh is an issue of strategic concern for the harmony of the region. Radical agendas do not threaten Bangladesh’s stability only but are likely to set the pace for similar extremist movements in the region, further triggering a domino effect on its neighbors and complicating India’s security calculus.
There are strategic implications associated with the shifting the direction of Dhaka’s foreign policy. Bangladesh’s outreach to Pakistan added with the extension of China’s influence have the potential to undermine India’s strategic interests in the Bay of Bengal and the wider region of the Indian Ocean. These developments, therefore, require recalibrating India’s regional strategy to counterbalance China’s growing presence and also to remain dominant at sea. India must, therefore, brace itself for the scenarios of refugee crisis. History has shown instances where major possible movements have taken place like that of the Rohingyas. An unstable Bangladesh would fall into the same category and will need to sound contingency response plans to address humanitarian needs along with national security. The Mukti Joddhas must be disheartened by the current scenario, as much as they fought for the freedom of Bangladesh. The ideals of secularism and democracy for which they struggled are under siege. And India, which stood by this country in a liberation struggle, must follow up with some bit of moral responsibility to its people in the pursuit of enduring these historical values. Economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure can also prove worthwhile instruments to compel the new administration in Dhaka to comply. But these coercive measures must not be alienating for the Bangladeshi people. On the contrary, India should pursue assisting civil society groups and democratic forces in Bangladesh to cultivate an environment suitable for launching political reforms.
Necessarily join hands in laying up fingers on the Bangladeshi government for human rights, democratic restoration, and minority rights without letting up until all interested countries share these concerns. Multilateral organizations, especially the United Nations, will definitely find their important role in this exercise. The nation’s economy has transformed from ten years ago into one that has hope and potential, but unfortunately, the present political and social disruptions could spoil the decade’s progress. An absolute wrecking of democratic institutions, along with the fast rise of extremism, can derail its development trajectory entirely, with grave consequences for the entire region.
India should reach out to Bangladesh well beyond the official diplomacy. With cultural collaborations, educating partnerships, and commercial ties, strengthen the ties between people and people-to-people relations. These initiatives would form a country-to-country basis on which to create a resilient relationship. Such actions will also negate radical influences via promoting mutual understanding and shared joint values.
This is an urgent requirement for a secular and plural Bangladesh. That is something India would need for its own strategic compulsion; it is a bulwark against extremist regimes and a partner in the regional prosperity that India shares with others. India would, thus, have to continue to reinforce its commitment to the values that are held in common even as it faces the challenges thrown by the ongoing political crisis.
Vikram Misri, Foreign Secretary of India, visited Dhaka on 9 December 2024, to reaffirm India’s loyalty to the stability and progress of Bangladesh. Faced with the growing inputs of political upheavals and rising extremism, Misri’s outreach cuts into India’s reply to protect shared democratic values and regional peace. It has raised issues of concern to India over minority security, border security, and extremist elements to create a sound India for northeastern stability. In holding up deeper partnerships and infrastructure projects, Misri reinforced India’s position as a reliable ally, ensuring Bangladesh as the bedrock of India’s Act East Policy and a bastion against disruptive influences in South Asia. It is another reminder of India’s leadership toward a stable, pluralistic, and prosperous neighbourhood.
The future of India-Bangladesh relations would be determined by the decisions we make today. A proactive, multi-pronged approach can enable it to steer Bangladesh into relative stability and progress with immediate security concerns balanced with development over time while safeguarding the relationship as a pillar of South Asian stability. Because it is, finally and most importantly, the people of Bangladesh who hold the key to the destiny of their own nation, they will be judged by their ability to endure and fight for justice even against dire odds. India must be ready to support the gems, but not as a passive observer, but as a partner in action in their pursuit of a democratically and pluralistically representational future.
(Author is Professor in Comparative Literature and Donor of Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh (UP) India. Email: [email protected])
