IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon in 2026, Warns of Rising Heatwave Risks Across India
By Suman Munshi | Chief Editor, IBG NEWS
New Delhi, May 29: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its updated long-range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon season (June–September 2026), projecting below-normal rainfall across much of India while warning of an increased likelihood of heatwave conditions in several states during June.
According to the second-stage monsoon outlook released on Thursday, the country is expected to receive rainfall amounting to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the 2026 monsoon season, with a model error margin of ±4%. The forecast indicates an 84% probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall, raising concerns for agriculture, water resources, and power generation.
Monsoon Outlook Signals Rainfall Deficit
The IMD’s Multi-Model Ensemble forecasting system suggests that most parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season. However, some regions of Northwest India, Northeast India, eastern peninsular India, and isolated pockets of East-Central India may receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
The seasonal forecast shows a 60% probability of deficient rainfall and a further 24% probability of below-normal rainfall nationwide.
Meteorologists warn that a weaker monsoon could affect rain-fed agriculture, reduce reservoir levels, impact hydropower generation, and increase drought-related risks in vulnerable regions.
El Niño Conditions Expected to Develop
A key factor influencing this year’s forecast is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
IMD stated that the currently neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning towards El Niño, which is typically associated with weaker monsoon performance over the Indian subcontinent.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral and is expected to continue in that state throughout the monsoon season, providing limited support to rainfall activity.
June Rainfall Also Likely Below Normal
The outlook for June 2026 is equally concerning. IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for most regions of the country during the month, except for parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, southern peninsular regions, and isolated areas of Central India where normal to above-normal rainfall remains possible.
The long-period average rainfall for June stands at 165.4 mm, but current projections suggest nationwide precipitation may fall short of this benchmark.
Heatwave Conditions to Intensify
In addition to rainfall concerns, the IMD has forecast above-normal heatwave activity across several states during June.
States likely to witness increased heatwave days include:
- Uttar Pradesh
- Haryana
- Punjab
- Bihar
- Odisha
- Chhattisgarh
- Gujarat
- Andhra Pradesh
Isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu are also expected to experience above-normal heatwave conditions.
Conversely, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are projected to record fewer heatwave days than usual.
Temperatures Expected to Remain Elevated
The forecast indicates that both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most parts of India during June.
Higher temperatures could increase stress on public health systems, water supplies, electricity demand, and urban infrastructure. Vulnerable populations, including senior citizens, children, outdoor workers, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions, are expected to face heightened risks from prolonged exposure to extreme heat.
Advisory for Governments and Citizens
In view of the anticipated weather conditions, the IMD has advised state governments and district administrations to strengthen preparedness measures, including:
- Ensuring availability of drinking water
- Operational readiness of cooling shelters
- Enhanced health surveillance systems
- Emergency response preparedness
Citizens have been urged to stay updated with official weather forecasts, maintain adequate hydration, avoid direct exposure during peak afternoon hours, and take additional precautions for vulnerable family members.
Forecasts to be Updated Regularly
The IMD noted that it will continue issuing weekly extended-range forecasts and impact-based warnings throughout the monsoon season. The next rainfall outlook for July 2026 is expected to be released in the final week of June.
As India prepares for a potentially weaker monsoon and hotter-than-normal conditions, policymakers, farmers, and disaster management authorities will be closely monitoring weather developments in the weeks ahead.
Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.
This rewrite is based on the PIB release you provided.Here’s a rewritten IBG NEWS article suitable for publication, with a journalistic structure and byline for Suman Munshi, Chief Editor, IBG NEWS:
IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon in 2026, Warns of Rising Heatwave Risks Across India
By Suman Munshi | Chief Editor, IBG NEWS
New Delhi, May 29: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its updated long-range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon season (June–September 2026), projecting below-normal rainfall across much of India while warning of an increased likelihood of heatwave conditions in several states during June.
According to the second-stage monsoon outlook released on Thursday, the country is expected to receive rainfall amounting to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the 2026 monsoon season, with a model error margin of ±4%. The forecast indicates an 84% probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall, raising concerns for agriculture, water resources, and power generation.
Monsoon Outlook Signals Rainfall Deficit
The IMD’s Multi-Model Ensemble forecasting system suggests that most parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season. However, some regions of Northwest India, Northeast India, eastern peninsular India, and isolated pockets of East-Central India may receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
The seasonal forecast shows a 60% probability of deficient rainfall and a further 24% probability of below-normal rainfall nationwide.
Meteorologists warn that a weaker monsoon could affect rain-fed agriculture, reduce reservoir levels, impact hydropower generation, and increase drought-related risks in vulnerable regions.
El Niño Conditions Expected to Develop
A key factor influencing this year’s forecast is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
IMD stated that the currently neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning towards El Niño, which is typically associated with weaker monsoon performance over the Indian subcontinent.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral and is expected to continue in that state throughout the monsoon season, providing limited support to rainfall activity.
June Rainfall Also Likely Below Normal
The outlook for June 2026 is equally concerning. IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for most regions of the country during the month, except for parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, southern peninsular regions, and isolated areas of Central India where normal to above-normal rainfall remains possible.
The long-period average rainfall for June stands at 165.4 mm, but current projections suggest nationwide precipitation may fall short of this benchmark.
Heatwave Conditions to Intensify
In addition to rainfall concerns, the IMD has forecast above-normal heatwave activity across several states during June.
States likely to witness increased heatwave days include:
- Uttar Pradesh
- Haryana
- Punjab
- Bihar
- Odisha
- Chhattisgarh
- Gujarat
- Andhra Pradesh
Isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu are also expected to experience above-normal heatwave conditions.
Conversely, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are projected to record fewer heatwave days than usual.
Temperatures Expected to Remain Elevated
The forecast indicates that both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most parts of India during June.
Higher temperatures could increase stress on public health systems, water supplies, electricity demand, and urban infrastructure. Vulnerable populations, including senior citizens, children, outdoor workers, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions, are expected to face heightened risks from prolonged exposure to extreme heat.
Advisory for Governments and Citizens
In view of the anticipated weather conditions, the IMD has advised state governments and district administrations to strengthen preparedness measures, including:
- Ensuring availability of drinking water
- Operational readiness of cooling shelters
- Enhanced health surveillance systems
- Emergency response preparedness
Citizens have been urged to stay updated with official weather forecasts, maintain adequate hydration, avoid direct exposure during peak afternoon hours, and take additional precautions for vulnerable family members.
Forecasts to be Updated Regularly
The IMD noted that it will continue issuing weekly extended-range forecasts and impact-based warnings throughout the monsoon season. The next rainfall outlook for July 2026 is expected to be released in the final week of June.
As India prepares for a potentially weaker monsoon and hotter-than-normal conditions, policymakers, farmers, and disaster management authorities will be closely monitoring weather developments in the weeks ahead.
Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.
This rewrite is based on the PIB release you provided.
